RESUMO
This study analyzed the population dynamics of the Oriental white stork (Ciconia boyciana) wintering in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve (PLNNR) from 1985 to 2011, to see if there was any relationship with climate change. Testing of several climate variables-monthly average temperature, monthly average maximum and minimum temperature, as well as monthly precipitation-indicated that the population size of the Oriental white stork in the PLNNR was 1,340±178 ind., with significant linear increase and drastic annual fluctuation. Every single year, the population size only significantly correlated with the average minimum temperature of Nov. In theory, the low temperature of Nov. could drive individuals to choose other wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, instead of the Poyang Lake as wintering habitats. Meanwhile, temperatures in wintering areas also showed a carry-over effect on subsequent population size. Temperatures in primary stage and later stage of wintering period were significantly correlated with population size 2-9 years later, while the temperature of Oct. was highly significantly correlated with population size 2-5 years after. Temperatures of Feb. and Mar. in the later stage of wintering period were highly significantly correlated with population size of 8 and 3 years after, respectively. Moreover, the stepwise linear regression result showed that the average maximum temperature of Oct. and average maximum temperature of Mar. 2 years ago, as well as the average maximum temperature of Oct. and the average temperature of Mar. 4 years ago were significant predictor factors of the population size fluctuation of the Oriental white stork, which totally accounted for 79.2% of the population size change.
